India with a current population of 1.34 billion is nearly bursting at the seams. In August 1947, when our nation threw off the shackles of colonialism, we were a nation of 34.5 crore people. The census, taken a few years earlier, had put it at just 33 crore. It was mindboggling, even then, by international standards. The only nation which had the unenviable distinction of having a population more than India was China. It still remains slightly ahead.
In August 1999, the population of India
officially crossed the one billion mark, just in time for Independence Day on
August 15, according to the United Nations demographers. The percentage of
population increase was calculated at 1.19% and it was estimated to overtake
China, as the most populous nation in the world in four decades. China has been
comparatively more successful in its efforts to control population, pulling it
down to 0.47% per year, from its
earlier levels.
The lack of political will, self-seeking politicians and appeasement policy of the Government have made all our efforts to control the population explosion, come a cropper.
In the early part of the 20th century, our
population was quite stable, not for any other reason but a high mortality
rate. Indians had large families but the infant mortality rate as well as early
death rate were high,
leading to a population growth considered negligible. Since the late 1940’s the
birth rate has seen a definite negative trend but the mortality rate has also
plummeted. The average fertility rate in
India is 2.3 whereas, the ideal fertility rate should not be more than 2.1, the
rate at which the population simply replaces itself without increasing. At
present estimates this level could be probably reached by 2026, considering the
absolute increase in numbers.
The reforms tried all over our nation have been a total failure and the lack of political will is the main reason. The reforms do not appear to be forthcoming at all and the policy of appeasement by self-seekers is more dominant. Since the studies show a huge but unmet demand for contraceptives and the administration is totally moribund, some Non-Government Organisations have taken the lead and are sincerely trying to do their best. However they have limited reach and financial strength to make a significant dent in a huge population.
In spite of all our advancements, our population problem and a poor administration that ignores deaths caused due to starvation continue to give our nation a bad name. Can anyone imagine people selling off their children and dying due to starvation in a nation where the Food Corporation of India has stocks of food grains rotting away in millions of tonnes?
If we delve into other factors which are automatically derived from our large population, we find that India has a large majority of people living below extreme poverty level. It was the unenviable record of having more than 270 million people whose poverty level can be appraised by the fact that their earning capacity is less than what is necessary to buy basic food for them.
All these factors do not necessarily need excessive financing, to be eliminated. What they need is a proper policy and the motivation to put the policy in a moving and dynamic format.
The level of illiteracy, the dogma of religious beliefs and the cravings of every family to have a male heir to continue their dynasty are the main factors which have resulted in this problem and need to be properly tackled at different levels. Caste and communal politics have added to the woes and a part of the electorate and the minority community has been misguided and misinformed into believing that the efforts at birth control were actually directed at them. The result was that since the efforts made in this direction in 1970s and the very idea of family planning have come as a total failure.
The economy of the nation and levels of poverty are both negative because of these reasons. A very important problem which affects economic development in any nation is the rapid growth of population. With the falling level of death rates, this results in an imbalance between population size, resources and capital. The rate of growth of population has more than doubled from 1981. To maintain a rapidly growing population, the percentage requirement of food, clothing, shelter, medicine, schooling etc. all rise. Moreover, rising population imposes greater economic burden and the per capita availability of land and other resources fixed in supply decline. So, if it is not brought under control then a time will come when there will be poverty and unemployment everywhere.
In terms of population size, India comes second in position next only to China and supports about one-fifth of world population. The density of Indian population however is much higher on account of its smaller area and the position with regard to Indian population has assumed serious or more aptly alarming proportion in the last few decades. It is obvious that there is no fixed optimum population figure for all times to come. The measure is an ever changing one in an economy which has a rate of net savings and in which levels of land, fertility, mineral resources and production technologies keep changing. Factors like education and training of labour force, the norms relating to working hours per day and working days per year, the seasonality of economic activities, health and nutrition standard also contribute their share in determining the size of optimum population.
An overpopulated, underdeveloped nation faced with scarcity of land and capital, suffers from the problem of providing education, medical treatment, employment etc. Unemployment is a social evil which leads to a wastage of human resources that could have been put to producing use. The potentials of development have not been properly exploited hence the bulk of population lives in misery.
Under the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) countries are ranked on the basis of human development index (HDI). It is very shocking and distressing to note that India has been ranked 131st out of 188 countries in the recent HDI.
In actual practice it is difficult to estimate the size of optimum population of a nation. An overpopulated nation like India is characterised by high population density, widespread poverty, unemployment and a low per capita income. An underpopulated nation on the other hand will have a perpetual shortage of labour.
Other causes of overpopulation are the factors accounting for lowering of death rates. The invention of low cost and effective drugs has resulted in the reduction of illness and death rate. It means that people live longer and add to existing population. Spread of knowledge about the nutritional requirements of our body and better availability of food and medicines have helped people in fighting diseases. With the improvement in medical facilities, the percentage of infant mortality and delivery deaths has considerably reduced. Together with this, lack of education and the craving for a male heir result in more children inconsiderate of the effects they have on the health of the mother.
To control the population growth, India can adopt the one child per family norm as implemented in China. Families having more children can be penalised in some manner which are exemplary by levying some tax or taking away the opportunities of government service, of benefits which are guaranteed by our Constitution. These sound like harsh measures but can help control the population of our country.
Such drastic measures are called for now. Let us not be foolish enough to consider this runaway horrendous problem anything less than an ‘Emergency’.